An overview of the IIMR and its team in the news.
9th December 2022
IIMR Chair Tim Congdon gets a passing mention in an opinion piece for the FTadviser website which discusses the effects of the current double-digit inflation. Hubert Kucharski and Paul Temperton write that the economy is currently in a 'hiccup' - a useful acronym to describe the current mix of high inflation, continued crisis and underlying problems. Tim is mentioned because of his scepticism of the Bank of England's economic forecasting. Regardless of whether high inflation fades away, the authors believe that a further crisis may follow and that the underlying problems which they highlight in the article are likely to persist.
4th November 2022
Gerard Lyons, Chief Economic Strategist at wealth management specialist Netwealth has referenced the recent IIMR Monetary Conference in an article for his company’s website. In his discussion about ‘A litany of mistakes: modern UK monetary policy’, he looked at the recent actions by the Bank of England as it tries to bring inflation under control. His discussion included a mention of the analyses by IIMR conference speakers Charles Goodhart, John Greenwood and James Ferguson.
23rd October 2022
Spanish newspaper Libre Mercado interviewed IIMR Director Juan Castaneda on 23rd October, describing him as an 'economist who predicted the inflation crisis in 2020'. In the article, Castaneda explained the relationship between money and inflation, gave his inflation trends for 2023 and detailed the reasons why he blames the ECB for inflation in the eurozone.
11th October 2022
We are excited to announce that the fifth Monetary Policy Essay Prize has been launched, a competition run by the Institute of Economic Affairs, the IIMR and the Vinson Centre. The topic is ‘Are the central banks to blame for the current inflation episode?’, for which there is a maximum word count of 2,500. There are three prizes: a first prize of £500, a second prize of £300 and a third prize of £200. The competition is open to non-UK residents, but they need to be aware that the top five participants must be able to attend the final at the Institute of Economic Affairs in London in early March 2023.
Full details can be found at https://iea.org.uk/Monetary-Policy-Essay-Prize. Entries must be received by 23:59 on 6th January 2023.
3rd October 2022
Tim Stanley, writing in the Daily Telegraph claims that our Chair, Professor Tim Congdon "almost cried over a graph of the debt-to-GDP ratio". NB: A subscription is required to read the full article
29th September 2022
Our Chair, Professor Tim Congdon, is quoted in an article in the Daily Telegraph entitled The Iron Lady had strategy, Kwarteng stupidity. He points out that the recent sort-of-budget was "quite the opposite of the 1981 budget” in substance and form." He also expressed concerns that Kwarteng's plans actually risks expanding the size of the state because it will lead to higher interest payments on the national debt and thus increase public spending. NB: A subscription is required to read the full article
29th September 2022
In a similar vein, Terence Corcoran, writing in Yahoo Finance, argues that we should "bring back the original Thatcherism" and quotes from the Institute's most recent monthly monetary update. Corcoran claims that "Congdon would be a good place to start in comparing Thatcher and Truss on fiscal and monetary policy thinking." In the money note, Tim called Trussonomics “a wild and reckless adventure.”
28th September 2022
This morning, the Financial Times published an article by our Chair, Professor Tim Congdon, stating that central banks have prepared a recipe for monetary overkill and liquidity crises. to read the full letter.
27th September 2022
Our Chair, Professor Tim Congdon, is "horrified" by the scale of borrowing proposed by the new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng. The article which quotes him on this matter first appeared in the Daily Telegraph but can be read without a subscription here.
27th September 2022
In an article on the Bank of England's inflation target, the Washington Post mentions our Chair, Professor Tim Congdon, stating that his accurate forecasting of the current inflationary episode has resulted in "proponents of money supply measuring.. regain(ing) some authority."
8th September 2022
This morning, the Financial Times published a letter from our Chair, Professor Tim Congdon, which stated that a low and stable growth of the money supply is the key to steady economic growth. NB: A subscription is required to read the full letter.
6th September 2022
An article in the Guardian profiling the economist Patrick Minford, features a quote from our Chair, Professor Tim Congdon. Although the author of the piece, Larry Elliott, descries Professor Minford as a monetarist, Tim disagrees. "Patrick is basically a Keynesian", he states.
27th August 2022
Jeremy Warner, writing in the Daily Telegraph, says that the new Prime Minister will face, in the words of one of his neighbours, a "right old pickle." He points out that our Chair, Professor Tim Congdon, was one of the few people who predicted back in 2020 that the UK would be suffering from high inflation now as a result of the Bank of England's "reckless expansion of the money supply".
8th August 2022
The Central Banking website has recently published an article by our Chair, Professor Tim Congdon, which argues persuasively that the surge in broad money growth in 2020 is the real reason why so many countries are suffering from high inflation at the moment. Tim argues that the role of monetary aggregates should be restored in central banks' consideration of monetary policy. NB: the full article can only be accessed by subscribers to Central Banking.
28th July 2022
Tim also gets a brief mention in this article by Jim McConalogue in Reaction. He points out that tax cutting may be popular but does not necessarily make a country better off. The article discussed privatising the International Trade Department.
27th July 2022
IIMR Director Juan Casteneda guest edits Volume 2 of Future Europe Journal, which explores the topic of rising inflation and potential societal fallout that is pushing institutions to rethink the principles of monetary union. It includes a chapter by Professor Tim Congdon 'Can the Eurozone Manage its Free Rider Problem?'. Read more at Future Europe Journal Volume 2.
25th July 2022
An article in Bloomberg news by Philip Aldrick and David Goodman entitled UK's Outsider Economists question radicalism of Trussonomics mentions our Chair, Professor Tim Congdon, describing him as a "Whitehall sceptic". His discomfort with Liz Truss' planned tax cuts stem from a concern that they will increase the quantity of money and thus prolong the current bout of inflation.
21st July 2022
Professor Tim Congdon is mentioned briefly in an article from the Australian Financial Review, which is critical of monetary policy in that country.
29th June 2022
Professor Tim Congdon is mentioned by Ryan Bourne of the Cato Insitute in this article for the Conservative Home Website. Mr Bourne mentions Tim Congdon's comment that calls by Boris Johnson and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey for wage restraint are "wicked" because they divert attention from the real cause of the current spike in inflation - excessive broad money growth two years ago.
14th June 2022
Professor Tim Congdon is extensively quoted in this article by Philip Aldrick in the Financial Post. The article is based on a lengthy interview he gave to Bloomberg news warning that the Bank of England risks causing a major recession if it continues to raise the bank rate in an attempt to counter inflation. It also mentions how he stood out from the crowd in predicting inflation following the launch of asset purchase programmes by many central banks in2020, which resulted in a surge in monetary growth. “It was the biggest call of my career,” he said. “I basically got it right.”
17th May 2022
Both Professor Tim Congdon and Dr Juan Castañeda are mentioned in this article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph. Entitled 'The Monetarists were right about inflation but now they have a different message', the article bemoans the cold-shouldering of monetarism in spite of its excellent track record in predicting inflation.
17th May 2022
The Financial Times published a letter from Professor Tim Congdon, Chair of our Institute, in which he stated that the real cause of inflation is the dramatic jump in the money supply during 2020.
13th May 2022
Professor Tim Congdon, Chair of our Institute, was mentioned by the Money Week online magazine in an article by Max King. The article, entitled The inflation scare will fade" claims that inflation may not persist as long as some experts expect, particularly if central banks tighten monetary policy and cause the growth in the quantity of money to crash.
6th May 2022
Professor Tim Congdon, Chair of our Institute, was mentioned in an article by Terry Corcoran in the Financial Post, a Canadian on-line magazine. Entitled "Modern Monetary Failure", the article mentions how Tim was warning about inflation in the spring of 2020 and now that this prediction is being fulfilled, he is now warning that high inflation in the US could persist until 2025 and will inevitably be followed by a recession - and all because central bankers have failed to take any notice of the money supply.
29th April 2022
Online economics magazine and resource base EconLib posted an article about "The man who was correct" about predicting no inflation after the expansionary monetary policies in 2008, yet inflation after such policies in 2020, with an honorable mention of Professor Tim Congdon, Chair of our Institute. You can read the article here.
23rd February 2022
Professor Tim Congdon, Chair of our Institute, is mentioned in the Financial Times as a well-known monetarist who predicted the current surge in inflation in Spring 2020, based on monetary analysis. In addition, the article refers to IIMR's Annual Lecture, delivered by Lord Mervyn King last November, as an 'outstanding lecture'.
The same article also appeared in Ruetir, though without graphs and links.
11th February 2022
IIMR's chair Tim Congdon warns in an article in the Times that Central Banks now should not contract money supply too much, as it might lead to a gruesome recession next year.
8th February 2022
Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes to increase base rate by 75 basis points to 1%. You can read the minutes of the IEA's Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (January 2022), including the votes and comments by our Chair, Tim Congdon, and Director, Juan Castaneda.
7th February 2022
The Critic has recently published an article by IIMR's Chair Professor Tim Congdon. Tim argued that we can expect inflation between 5% and 10% which could last for most of the next two years. You can read the article on https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/february-2022/there-may-be-trouble-ahead.
29th January 2022
IIMR's chair Professor Tim Congdon is mentioned in a Seeking Alpha article, written by Scott Sumner. Scott argues that although traditional monetarists correctly warned that excessive money growth would trigger high inflation, he does not believe that this will lead to a revival of monetarism. You can read the article to see why.
27th January 2022
The Spanish newspaper Libre Mercado has just published a piece (in Spanish) on the IIMR, with an interview with its founder -Professor Tim Congdon- and its director -Juan Castañeda-: The founder of the think tank who predicted the inflationary crisis thinks that inflation will be over 5%.