An overview of the effects of monetary policy in Poland on GDP and inflation, from 1991 to the present day.
% annual growth rate:
The medium-term relationship between money and nominal GDP growth in Poland, 1991-2022
Five-year moving averages of annual % changes, with 1993 being the start of the first five-year period
Comment on monetary trends in PolandAfter being partitioned in 1795, Poland reappeared on the world map as an independent nation in 1918. The country was invaded by Germany in 1939 and from 1945 until the end of the Cold War in 1989, Poland was part of the Soviet bloc, with its economy centrally planned. Following the collapse of communism, the country moved towards a free market system.
Poland's current central bank, the Narodowy Bank Polski, was established in 1945. It was not the country's first central bank. Indeed, the Bank Polski, the first central bank,was established as far back as 1828, when the country was not a fully independent state.
Poland adopted the złoty as its currency in 1919. As a result of severe inflation in the early 1990s, a new złoty was introduced on 1st January 1995, equivalent to 10,000 old złoty. Since then, inflation has been relatively stable. The Central Bank introduced direct inflation targeting in 1999 and since 2003, the target has been 2.5% with a permitted fluctuation band of +/-1%. This targeting has largely been successful. Indeed, 2003 saw the start of an 18-year period when Polish inflation remained consistently below 5%.
Like many other advanced economies, however, in 2020, monetary policy was loosened in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Broad money grew rapidly and inflation started to follow suit during 2021, rising to 13.9% in May 2022. The central bank engaged in a series of increases in the bank rate starting in October 2021, which saw the cost of borrowing rise from 0.1% to 6.75% in the spate of barely one year. Inflation started falling in early 2023, but still remains well above target. Meanwhile, broad money growth remain relatively strong.
Poland joined the European Union in 2004.
Under the terms of its accession treaty, it is required eventually to join the single currency.