An overview of the effects of monetary policy in Venezuela on GDP and inflation, from 1941 to the present day.
% annual growth rate:
|1941 – 2020||120.68%||125.51%|
|1941 – 1950||17.17%||N/A|
|1951 – 1960||12.32%||8.16%|
|1961 – 1970||9.95%||7.42%|
|1971 – 1980||24.48%||17.79%|
|1981 – 1990||21.26%||26.40%|
|1991 – 2000||37.01%||44.78%|
|2001 – 2010||36.29%||29.90%|
|2011 - 2020||806.99%||744.13%|
Sources: M3 from the Central Bank of Venezuela and nominal GDP from 1950 to 2009 IMF World Economic Outlook then 2009- IMF International Financial Statistics, accessed as at May 2019.
The medium-term relationship between money and nominal GDP growth in Venezuela, 1941-2020
Five-year moving averages of annual % changes, with 1943 being the start of the first five-year period
Comment on monetary trends in Venezuela
The economic and monetary troubles in Venezuela during the last five years underline just how critical it is to keep stable and sound monetary institutions in the economy in order to maintain sustainable economic growth and preserve macroeconomic stability. In recent years, the Venezuelan government has increasingly resorted to the monetisation of the State deficit (i.e. using the monopoly power of the central bank to create new money and buy the debt of a government in need of finance). A politically dependent central bank combined with a financially errant government is leading to the collapse of the economy and a rampant loss in the purchasing power of the national currency.
Since 2014 we can observe an exponential growth in the amount of money in the economy and the corresponding increase in inflation, in fact reaching alarming hyperinflation rates. In 2017 and 2018 broad money grew at more than 1,000% and nearly 500% per annum respectively with the corresponding CPI inflation rates escalating to approx. 2,500% and 1,700,000%, respectively. This is producing a dramatic fall in the national output and effectively the dollarisation of the economy.
The Central Bank has been raising interest rates to record levels since 2021, with the current rate over 20%. Inflation has fallen, but still stood at 284.4% in the year to March 2022.
We would like to acknowledge Jon Aldekoa for his contribution to the segment Money Map for Venezuela